Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x023b…f08a other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$46
politics 17% −$6
economics 7% −$2
sports 4% −$8
culture 3% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 17% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 104 -6.9% -15.8% 10% 5% -9.8%
all 107 -6.1% -15.1% 10% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 6% -9.7%
10% -23.2% 6% -18.4%
15% -30.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage97d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $153 $153 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $311 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $287 $0 +0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $307 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $302 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 31 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $823 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $727 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $260 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $250 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $501 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $247 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $240 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $246 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 4h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 3d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 4d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 6d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $153 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 9d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 10d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $48 11d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $48 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 12d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $49 16d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $49 16d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 18d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $46 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.62 · official $228.62 (match) · 343 history records