Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
02 0x023b…f27f other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+20%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$14
finance 21% +$14
sports 10% +$13
tech 7% +$2
crypto 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.3% -0.2% 42% 42% -28.7%
≤30d 22 +36.4% +23.4% 45% 45% -18.7%
≤90d 26 +43.6% +29.9% 50% 50% +9.7%
all 26 +43.6% +29.9% 50% 50% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.9% 50% +9.7%
10% +17.5% 50% -0.8%
15% +6.1% 50% -10.4%
20% -4.3% 42% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)26 / 36
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $5 +$5 +100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $5 +$14 +288%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March? Apr 01 $5 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 45h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 6d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 6d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 6d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.82 · official $9.83 (match) · 59 history records