Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x0240…8579
crypto · 170 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$53 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$73
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses69 / 97
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)166 / 170
History coverage129d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 4 History 166 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$6
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $40 $51 +$11 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+68%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend JD Gaming 76¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 09 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 27? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 31 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 31 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 28? Mar 27 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 28? Mar 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 26? Mar 25 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 25 $1 +$5 +452%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 26? Mar 25 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $8 −$3 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $7 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 23? Mar 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 22 $30 +$25 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 23? Mar 22 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 23? Mar 22 $3 −$2 -68%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $30 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 22? Mar 21 $5 +$5 +107%
First Blood in Game 2? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $22 +$1 +5%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $2 +$7 +335%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 21? Mar 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 21? Mar 19 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 21? Mar 19 $6 −$2 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% −$26
sports 37% −$29
crypto 18% +$5
weather 6% −$4
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 59m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 9h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 59¢ $10 9h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $10 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $19 18h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 45h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 15d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 76¢ $7 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 65d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 71d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 73d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -8.1% -16.9% 38% 25% -11.8%
≤30d 10 -9.2% -17.8% 40% 30% -18.5%
≤90d 98 -36.7% -42.7% 28% 22% -30.0%
all 166 -9.0% -17.7% 42% 37% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 37% -16.2%
10% -25.6% 33% -24.2%
15% -32.8% 30% -31.5%
20% -39.3% 27% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.38 · official $73.81 (match) · 409 history records