Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0241…fd36 sports 463 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,663 (+3%) realized +$5,634 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate57%306W / 235L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day90.7pace
Fees−$2,599est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3,841now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,881
other 3% −$19
finance 0% −$6
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -48.9% -53.8% 33% 10% -19.8%
≤30d 488 -7.9% -16.6% 56% 22% -11.1%
≤90d 541 -7.3% -16.2% 57% 24% -11.3%
all 541 -7.3% -16.2% 57% 24% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 24% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 18% -19.8%
15% -31.5% 13% -27.6%
20% -38.2% 9% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$89 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$3,841
Realized+$5,634
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses306 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$2,599
Open positions11
Markets (closed)541 / 463
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$458
Trades / day90.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 NBA Draft: Any Team to Trade into Top 10? No 91¢ 95¢ $1,799 $1,887 +$88 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK Academy 49¢ 50¢ $460 $464 +$5 (+1%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 86¢ 90¢ $429 $448 +$20 (+5%)
FaZe roster change Before GTA VI? Yes 84¢ 93¢ $289 $320 +$31 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 50¢ 50¢ $244 $247 +$2 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 94¢ 94¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+1%)
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? No 94¢ 95¢ $58 $58 +$1 (+1%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ 10¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-15%)
Will Astralis make a roster change before July? No 90¢ 90¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
FaZe roster change Before GTA VI? No 13¢ 7¢ $16 $8 −$7 (-47%)
Will Astralis make a roster change before July? Yes 77¢ 10¢ $57 $7 −$50 (-88%)
Honor of Kings: ONE Team vs Bacon Time - Game 4 Winner Bacon Time 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage FaZe 50¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage 9z 50¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BIG 50¢ 68¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 24 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 24 $355 −$355 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $139 −$138 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $57 −$54 -94%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Jun 24 $168 −$168 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs BIG (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Tricked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Aether vs shimmer - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $0 +$2 +800%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q Jun 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Legion (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia Jun 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stag Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 24 $116 −$116 -100%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 24 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MIBR (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 24 $260 −$260 -100%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Tricked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: Spartans EU vs Gamespace Mediterranean College Esports (BO2) - HL Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Seas Jun 24 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Jun 24 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 24 $52 −$46 -87%
LoL: Shifters vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 24 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Metizport (BO1) - BC Game Ma Jun 24 $73 −$73 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South Amer Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Game Hunters (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Jun 24 $28 −$27 -96%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger Jun 24 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 24 $335 −$335 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Honor of Kings: ONE Team vs Bacon Time - Game 4 Winner BUY Bacon Time 50¢ $5 1h
2026 NBA Draft: Any Team to Trade into Top 10? BUY No 91¢ $709 1h
2026 NBA Draft: Any Team to Trade into Top 10? BUY No 91¢ $1,095 1h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ALKA 50¢ $244 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Giles Hussey vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 50¢ $137 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Completed Match: Giles Hussey vs Joao Fonseca BUY No 99¢ $54 9h
Will Astralis make a roster change before July? BUY No 90¢ $26 12h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 77¢ $141 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 77¢ $77 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 77¢ $58 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 77¢ $32 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 77¢ $77 13h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 34¢ $94 13h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 64¢ $176 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $11 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $66 13h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $77 13h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 49¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 49¢ $4 15h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 49¢ $10 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 47¢ $3 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 47¢ $107 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 47¢ $118 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $130 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 46¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,841.49 · official $3,841.35 (match) · 3500 history records