trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -48.5% | -53.4% | 50% | 0% | -15.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 80% | 40% | -7.2% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 80% | 40% | -7.2% |
| all | 22 | +11.4% | +0.8% | 86% | 36% | +76.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.8% | 36% | +76.4% |
| 10% | -8.9% | 36% | +59.5% |
| 15% | -17.7% | 27% | +44.1% |
| 20% | -25.8% | 18% | +30.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 72¢ | 65¢ | $7 | $6 | −$1 (-9%) |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 42¢ | 40¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 12¢ | 11¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 11¢ | $2 | $3 | +$1 (+31%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+8%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? | Jun 15 | $40 | +$1 | +3% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | May 19 | $3 | +$1 | +48% |
| Pelicans vs. Raptors | May 19 | $7 | +$3 | +39% |
| Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 7 be between 2,200,0 | Mar 09 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31? | Mar 09 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi | Mar 09 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 09 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? | Mar 09 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil | Feb 24 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Nets vs. Magic | Feb 24 | $4 | +$1 | +25% |
| Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? | Feb 24 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Bulls vs. Raptors | Feb 24 | $5 | +$2 | +33% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? | Feb 24 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 | Dec 12 | $997 | +$920 | +92% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5 | Dec 12 | $1,031 | +$939 | +91% |
| Spread: Lakers (-5.5) | Dec 12 | $1,000 | +$1,000 | +100% |
| Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5 | Dec 12 | $1,500 | +$1,561 | +104% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: November | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025? | Dec 11 | $9 | $0 | +1% |