Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
02 0x0246…7fc1 sports 9 markets active 5d ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days−$40
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.6% -18.2% 75% 50% -0.1%
≤30d 9 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 44% -8.9%
≤90d 9 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 44% -8.9%
all 9 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 44% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 44% -8.9%
10% -32.2% 22% -17.6%
15% -38.8% 22% -25.6%
20% -44.8% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage26d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $36 +$5 +14%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $51 +$23 +46%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $79 −$7 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $55 +$42 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 98¢ $30 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $15 4d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 88¢ $36 4d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 97¢ $74 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 86¢ $40 9d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 65¢ $51 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $12 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $64 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 34¢ $34 18d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $55 20d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 51¢ $72 20d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 43¢ $63 22d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records