Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0249…5b4b sports 553 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,866 (+9%) realized +$15,029 · open −$1,163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%203W / 450L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day169.3pace
Fees−$1,964est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$13,969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$40,298
crypto 12% +$4,541
other 6% +$1,501
weather 4% −$1,250
world 1% $0
tech 1% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 400 -49.1% -53.9% 17% 17% -27.0%
≤30d 653 -6.7% -15.6% 31% 31% -12.5%
≤90d 653 -6.7% -15.6% 31% 31% -12.5%
all 653 -6.7% -15.6% 31% 31% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 31% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 31% -20.9%
15% -31.1% 31% -28.5%
20% -37.8% 29% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +69% → late -82% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$424 vs −$203 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$13,969
Realized+$15,029
Unrealized−$1,163
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses203 / 450
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,964
Open positions57
Markets (closed)653 / 553
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$275
Trades / day169.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 653 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $2,210 $2,202 −$8 (-0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $1,129 $1,117 −$12 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $840 $862 +$22 (+3%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $780 $772 −$8 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 27¢ 35¢ $572 $724 +$153 (+27%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 51¢ 68¢ $504 $672 +$168 (+33%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 53¢ 94¢ $283 $499 +$216 (+76%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $504 $498 −$6 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Over 46¢ 50¢ $454 $489 +$35 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 41¢ 24¢ $808 $477 −$331 (-41%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $464 $469 +$5 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $408 $457 +$49 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? No 19¢ 30¢ $228 $366 +$138 (+61%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $348 $354 +$6 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? No 17¢ 29¢ $204 $348 +$144 (+71%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? No 15¢ 28¢ $180 $336 +$156 (+87%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 29¢ 28¢ $287 $272 −$15 (-5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $225 $269 +$44 (+20%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $288 $252 −$36 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 29¢ 30¢ $245 $249 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? No 78¢ 100¢ $191 $245 +$55 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $211 $231 +$20 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $203 $194 −$8 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $310 $192 −$118 (-38%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $123 $165 +$42 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 443 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 163.5 Jun 17 $234 −$234 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 17 $230 −$230 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $1,099 −$1,099 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $292 −$292 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $576 −$576 -100%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-29? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4400 August 18–24? Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 18? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Trump say "Shit" this week? (August 25 - 31) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Drake Bulldogs vs. Southern Illinois Salukis Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Trump say "Heaven" during Museum of the Bible speech on September Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September? Jun 17 $370 −$370 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET Jun 17 $545 −$545 -100%
Chicago State Cougars vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights: O/U 146.5 Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4200 and $4400 on August 27? Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
South Florida Bulls vs. North Texas Mean Green Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $4100 August 11–17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26? Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 4PM ET Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 24? Jun 17 $163 −$163 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3700 on August 1 at 5PM ET? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on August 27? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 27-November 2? Jun 17 $262 −$262 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Fake News" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28 Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3900 August 11–17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 22-28? Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 17 $216 −$216 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 4PM ET Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1PM ET Jun 17 $301 −$301 -100%
Butler Bulldogs vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 159.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on August 1 at 5PM ET? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 18? Jun 17 $216 −$216 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 10PM ET Jun 17 $560 −$560 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K August 25–31? Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3700 August 11–17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 12AM ET Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $455 3m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY Yes 45¢ $16 5m
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 95¢ $9 10m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 31m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $701 32m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 57m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $348 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $362 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $77 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY Yes 45¢ $8 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 53¢ $67 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 53¢ $93 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 53¢ $11 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 53¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 53¢ $113 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 46¢ $454 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $52 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $298 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $202 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ $127 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 49¢ $5 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 49¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,968.58 · official $13,814.47 · 3500 history records