Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x024d…bbe6 crypto 54 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$8
other 3% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 50% -10.9%
≤30d 50 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 50% -10.9%
≤90d 50 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 50% -10.9%
all 50 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 50% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 50% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 50% -19.4%
15% -29.8% 48% -27.2%
20% -36.7% 38% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 43¢ 89¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+109%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$28 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$23 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$14 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$8 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$18 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.94 · official $8.94 (match) · 134 history records