Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0255…4eb0 crypto 498 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,095 (-9%) realized −$14,069 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate65%284W / 151L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$5
14 days−$30
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$14,497
sports 1% +$139
other 1% −$107
finance 1% −$53
world 0% +$128
politics 0% −$85
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +3.8% -6.1% 60% 60% -9.8%
≤30d 87 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 46% -9.2%
≤90d 435 -7.1% -15.9% 65% 39% -18.2%
all 435 -7.1% -15.9% 65% 39% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 39% -18.2%
10% -24.0% 24% -26.0%
15% -31.3% 17% -33.2%
20% -38.1% 8% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$141 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,631
Realized−$14,069
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses284 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions63
Markets (closed)435 / 498
History coverage79d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $85 $81 −$4 (-4%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $72 $71 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 70¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $56 $48 −$8 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $52 $48 −$3 (-7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 78¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $34 $39 +$5 (+15%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 75¢ $35 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $37 $37 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $37 $37 −$1 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -12%
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 −$9 -55%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $23 −$8 -36%
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $46 −$6 -13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $46 +$14 +31%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 +$13 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $73 +$27 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $42 +$8 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $21 +$9 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -20%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $22 +$8 +37%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $23 +$7 +31%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $21 +$9 +46%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $20 +$10 +50%
Croatia vs. Bulgaria: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $16 +$4 +26%
Finland vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $22 +$8 +36%
Sweden vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $22 +$8 +36%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $44 +$16 +36%
Norway vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $23 +$7 +32%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $21 +$9 +40%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$15 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$2 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $44 −$23 -52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $45 −$22 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $43 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $50 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $29 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $27 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $36 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $43 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 1h
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 1h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 1h
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $14 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $16 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $24 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $36 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $39 45h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $39 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $46 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $35 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,631.13 · official $1,630.84 (match) · 3396 history records