Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x0258…13bf crypto 849 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 166d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,045 (+2%) realized +$2,512 · open −$467
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate73%605W / 219L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4,465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 166d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$7,396
sports 6% −$339
other 6% −$2,457
tech 2% +$239
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +20.1% +8.7% 94% 67% +7.8%
≤30d 97 +9.8% -0.7% 79% 61% -5.5%
≤90d 364 +8.4% -1.9% 74% 56% -6.0%
all 824 +8.8% -1.5% 73% 53% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 53% -4.1%
10% -11.0% 33% -13.2%
15% -19.6% 22% -21.6%
20% -27.4% 17% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$70 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$4,465
Realized+$2,512
Unrealized−$467
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses605 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions25
Markets (closed)824 / 849
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 824 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? No 81¢ 62¢ $1,294 $1,000 −$294 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 90¢ 88¢ $449 $438 −$12 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 85¢ 76¢ $425 $382 −$42 (-10%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $272 $292 +$21 (+8%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $249 $264 +$15 (+6%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 83¢ 88¢ $250 $263 +$13 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 82¢ 87¢ $245 $259 +$14 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 88¢ 96¢ $191 $208 +$17 (+9%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 91¢ 83¢ $182 $165 −$17 (-9%)
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? No 63¢ 57¢ $126 $115 −$11 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $90 $99 +$9 (+10%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 95¢ 94¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30? No 78¢ 90¢ $78 $90 +$12 (+16%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in June? No 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $205 in June? No 79¢ 83¢ $79 $83 +$4 (+5%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? Yes 69¢ 79¢ $70 $80 +$10 (+14%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $60 95¢ 78¢ $95 $78 −$17 (-18%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $215 in June? No 90¢ 92¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 84¢ 68¢ $84 $68 −$15 (-18%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? No 85¢ 85¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 76¢ 33¢ $95 $41 −$54 (-56%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $71 $19 −$52 (-74%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 28¢ 5¢ $83 $15 −$68 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $182 +$18 +10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $133 +$67 +50%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $57 +$43 +75%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $790 +$190 +24%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 8 2 Jun 12 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 12 $275 +$42 +15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $82 +$48 +60%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 9? Jun 09 $71 +$29 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $83 +$17 +20%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 8? Jun 08 $90 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 8? Jun 08 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $155 +$35 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $170 +$30 +18%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 8? Jun 08 $190 +$10 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in June? Jun 05 $23 +$27 +113%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 03 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 03 $12 $0 +1%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 03 $33 +$47 +144%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31? Jun 01 $95 +$5 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 25-31? Jun 01 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $75 +$25 +34%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? Jun 01 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $110 +$90 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $226 +$74 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $273 +$27 +10%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 01 $380 +$20 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $214 +$186 +87%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $456 +$44 +10%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 01 $460 +$60 +13%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $400 +$200 +50%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 01 $463 +$137 +30%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $557 +$63 +11%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 01 $429 +$271 +63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May? May 31 $24 +$3 +14%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? May 31 $75 +$7 +9%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 31 $69 +$31 +45%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 31 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May? May 31 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in May? May 31 $166 +$24 +14%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 in May? May 31 $179 +$21 +12%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $225 in May? May 31 $249 +$37 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY No 63¢ $117 32m
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY No 63¢ $9 38m
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? BUY No 85¢ $69 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $133 47h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $6 3d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 3d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 57¢ $28 3d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 57¢ $11 3d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 57¢ $8 3d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $88 3d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 3d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $63 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $19 3d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 8 2 BUY No 75¢ $75 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $18 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $462 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $269 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $83 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,464.53 · official $4,459.57 (match) · 3500 history records