Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x025c…23d0 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$6
other 29% −$1
politics 7% −$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +1.4% -8.3% 53% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 17 +1.4% -8.3% 53% 6% -8.5%
all 49 -1.5% -10.9% 45% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -8.9%
10% -19.4% 2% -17.6%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage455d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $79 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $49 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $43 +$5 +12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $53 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 27 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $7 $0 +4%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $6 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $2 $0 -22%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 26 $8 −$1 -6%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will X buy TikTok? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $1 $0 +28%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 23 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador Apr 21 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $40 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 23h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 38h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 39h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $39 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $39 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $32 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $4 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $4 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $24 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $35 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records