Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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02 0x025e…bb39 crypto 923 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-2%) realized −$93 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate65%699W / 378L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day91.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$373
7 days−$356
14 days−$336
30 days−$392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$77
weather 30% +$19
other 4% +$9
sports 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 328 -54.3% -58.7% 38% 19% -26.2%
≤30d 1034 -20.0% -27.6% 65% 23% -15.8%
≤90d 1077 -19.6% -27.3% 65% 23% -15.8%
all 1077 -19.6% -27.3% 65% 23% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 23% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 10% -23.9%
15% -40.6% 5% -31.2%
20% -46.4% 4% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses699 / 378
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)1077 / 923
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day91.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 1077 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? No 92¢ 91¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? No 88¢ 86¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 93¢ 92¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 89¢ 84¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? No 96¢ 94¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? No 82¢ 84¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? No 95¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 52¢ 57¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? No 83¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 294 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 Un Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Baptiste (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 29? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.48 · official $319.82 (match) · 3500 history records