Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x025f…25cf crypto 1292 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$205 (+1%) realized +$216 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate76%978W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$318
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1282 -1.7% -11.0% 76% 69% -10.9%
all 1282 -1.7% -11.0% 76% 69% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 69% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 46% -19.4%
15% -27.3% 25% -27.2%
20% -34.5% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$472
Realized+$216
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses978 / 304
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1282 / 1292
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $81 $89 +$8 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $86 $71 −$15 (-17%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? No 78¢ 61¢ $74 $58 −$16 (-22%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? No 42¢ 59¢ $41 $56 +$16 (+39%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? No 39¢ 42¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+6%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Yes 49¢ 58¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 54¢ 20¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 28 $27 +$3 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 28 $9 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 28 $28 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 28 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 28 $13 +$6 +46%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 28 $50 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 28 $17 +$3 +19%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 28 $28 +$2 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 28 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 28 $15 +$4 +29%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 28 $22 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 28 $16 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 28 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 28 $15 +$4 +28%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 28 $7 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 28 $23 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 28 $13 +$6 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 28 $23 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 28 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 28 $26 +$4 +17%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 28 $9 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 28 $26 +$3 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 28 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 28 $13 +$7 +52%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 28 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 28 $29 +$10 +35%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 28 $17 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 28 $8 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 28 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 28 $13 +$6 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 28 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 28 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 28 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 28 $17 +$3 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 28 $8 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 27 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 27 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 27 $18 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 27 $8 +$2 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 27 $7 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 27 $26 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 39m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 30¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $8 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $6 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $8 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $9 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $9 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $7 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $7 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 54¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $8 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $6 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $6 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $471.59 · official $471.59 (match) · 3500 history records