Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x0262…23dd other 425 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$269 (+2%) realized +$276 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate78%319W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$65
14 days+$108
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$428
sports 30% −$130
culture 3% $0
politics 2% −$16
world 1% +$8
weather 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$35
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +10.4% -0.1% 100% 60% -1.6%
≤30d 40 +11.0% +0.4% 100% 45% -2.3%
≤90d 134 +0.6% -9.0% 90% 42% -4.6%
all 410 +1.8% -7.9% 78% 39% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 39% -7.9%
10% -16.7% 11% -16.7%
15% -24.7% 9% -24.8%
20% -32.1% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$625
Realized+$276
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses319 / 91
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)410 / 425
History coverage599d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 95¢ 95¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 96¢ 96¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 95¢ 94¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands South Africa 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 93¢ 92¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh India 98¢ 97¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India India 96¢ 94¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 95¢ 95¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 83¢ 83¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 76¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $65 +$7 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$4 +13%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$3 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 +$5 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$4 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$4 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $21 $0 +2%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Myanmar win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Mozambique win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +4%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Mali May 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-03-22? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SK Poltava vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FK Orenburg win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $150 +$11 +7%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 96¢ $48 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 96¢ $50 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 98¢ $50 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $100 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $70 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 95¢ $60 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 88¢ $50 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $50 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $20 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $15 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $30 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 90¢ $30 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $30 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $30 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $50 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $35 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $25 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $50 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $50 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $30 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $50 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $50 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $100 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $30 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $100 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.04 · official $625.04 (match) · 982 history records