Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0262…d7b6 other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,522 (-19%) realized −$1,168 · open −$354
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$853
7 days−$1,857
14 days−$1,869
30 days−$1,869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1,139
world 32% −$1,083
sports 6% −$273
tech 5% +$324
crypto 4% −$48
finance 3% +$35
politics 1% −$32
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 42% -45.5%
≤30d 37 -18.3% -26.1% 41% 32% -37.7%
≤90d 37 -18.3% -26.1% 41% 32% -37.7%
all 37 -18.3% -26.1% 41% 32% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 32% -37.7%
10% -33.1% 22% -43.6%
15% -39.6% 8% -49.1%
20% -45.5% 5% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$119 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,411
Realized−$1,168
Unrealized−$354
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions19
Markets (closed)37 / 56
History coverage11d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $423 $434 +$11 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 82¢ 96¢ $200 $235 +$35 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $186 $184 −$2 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 69¢ 62¢ $160 $144 −$16 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 93¢ 92¢ $81 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 27¢ 8¢ $103 $28 −$74 (-72%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 21¢ 38¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 21¢ 28¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-63%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-13%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $300 $2 −$298 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $104 +$23 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -56%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $1,212 −$886 -73%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$10 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -17%
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $12 +$2 +14%
Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $12 +$3 +22%
Will "Water" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $12 +$3 +23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will "Texas" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $12 +$3 +23%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $104 +$33 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $145 −$6 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2,063 −$1,160 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $145 +$54 +37%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $21 −$9 -41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$267 +259%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $151 −$133 -88%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$22 -74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 14 $202 +$5 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $102 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$10 -66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$6 -6%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $102 −$23 -22%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $52 −$10 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $44 +$9 +21%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 11 $51 −$46 -89%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 11 $416 +$324 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 09 $101 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $127 14m
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $162 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 12¢ $299 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 1h
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July BUY No 93¢ $82 9h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 40¢ $302 9h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $104 10h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 10h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 10h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 10h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 10h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 48¢ $101 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 47¢ $101 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 47¢ $101 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 47¢ $101 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 46¢ $101 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 41¢ $97 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $89 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,410.54 · official $1,410.08 (match) · 219 history records