Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0267…7f7e sports 412 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13,612 (+5%) realized +$14,358 · open −$746
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%174W / 269L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$652per market
Trades / day82.3pace
Fees−$4,616est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$1,452
other 9% −$4,467
politics 8% −$42
crypto 0% −$391
world 0% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -76.0% -78.2% 5% 5% -73.3%
≤30d 261 -29.2% -35.9% 38% 33% -21.7%
≤90d 443 -23.3% -30.6% 39% 35% -14.4%
all 443 -23.3% -30.6% 39% 35% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 35% -14.4%
10% -37.3% 31% -22.6%
15% ← realistic here -43.3% 27% -30.1%
20% -48.9% 23% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$366 vs −$284 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$2,029
Realized+$14,358
Unrealized−$746
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses174 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$4,616
Open positions4
Markets (closed)443 / 412
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$652
Trades / day82.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 50¢ 52¢ $1,224 $1,283 +$59 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 24¢ $741 $745 +$4 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 42¢ 0¢ $810 $1 −$809 (-100%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $690 −$690 -100%
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija win on 2026-05-09? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-07? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic Jun 19 $200 −$160 -80%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Jun 19 $134 −$46 -34%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 19 $461 −$461 -100%
Jiujiang: Heather Watson vs Xiaodi You Jun 19 $736 −$736 -100%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-07? Jun 19 $2,110 −$2,110 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Tereza Valentova Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Renofa Yamaguchi FC vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki end in a draw? Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Jiujiang: Lizette Cabrera vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar Jun 19 $552 −$552 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Blockx Jun 19 $451 +$2,251 +499%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Jiujiang: Xinxin Yao vs Xiaodi You Jun 19 $116 +$40 +34%
Will Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
KCC Egis vs. Goyang Jun 19 $148 −$148 -100%
Santos: Murkel Dellien vs Hernan Casanova Jun 19 $258 −$258 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 19 $445 −$445 -100%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-05-09? Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5) Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Shevchenko Jun 19 $1,168 −$1,168 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse Jun 19 $325 −$325 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Clara Tauson vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perri Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi Jun 19 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Renofa Yamaguchi FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Santos: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Miguel Tobon Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 19 $486 −$486 -100%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac Jun 19 $303 −$303 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva Jun 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniel Altmaier vs Alexander Zverev Jun 19 $342 −$342 -100%
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat? Jun 19 $141 −$42 -30%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $303 −$302 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $129 −$129 -100%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 10 $254 −$253 -100%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $58 +$30 +52%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $193 +$195 +101%
Elitzur Netanya vs. Ironi Ness Ziona Jun 10 $128 +$105 +83%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $122 +$211 +172%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $596 −$587 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,163 −$145 -12%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $55 +$67 +122%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $464 +$738 +159%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $636 −$626 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $974 −$74 -8%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $285 −$283 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 45¢ $25 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 45¢ $15 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 43¢ $146 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 50¢ $113 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 42¢ $278 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 39¢ $90 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 39¢ $78 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 60¢ $92 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 39¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $64 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $36 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $20 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 51¢ $9 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $31 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 51¢ $105 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat? SELL Yes 20¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 23¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 23¢ $18 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 50¢ $620 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 50¢ $508 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $30 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 66¢ $101 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 61¢ $182 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 57¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $160 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $213 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $312 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $36 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $93 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,029.36 · official $2,029.23 (match) · 3500 history records