Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
02 0x026a…f9a0 crypto 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$964 (-2%) realized −$964 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate76%95W / 30L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$323
7 days−$35
14 days−$1,018
30 days−$1,417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$782
other 0% −$175
world 0% −$167
sports 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.9% -10.3% 73% 61% -9.9%
≤30d 36 -3.3% -12.5% 69% 58% -21.4%
≤90d 53 -6.3% -15.2% 70% 55% -17.0%
all 125 -3.7% -12.9% 76% 42% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 42% -12.0%
10% -21.2% 20% -20.4%
15% -28.8% 12% -28.1%
20% -35.8% 5% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$208 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$964
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses95 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage143d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $248 +$64 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $473 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $211 +$60 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $330 +$83 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $238 +$92 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET Jun 23 $218 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $339 −$71 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $204 −$161 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $166 +$79 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$30 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $116 +$46 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $73 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$31 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $90 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $165 +$28 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $75 +$34 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $112 +$75 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $134 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $75 +$29 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $132 +$32 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $123 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $184 +$53 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $151 +$33 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $384 −$246 -64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $488 −$476 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $491 −$240 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $975 +$208 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $641 +$264 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 16 $575 +$56 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,622 −$983 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $577 +$405 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? Jun 03 $805 −$805 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $499 +$305 +61%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19? Apr 18 $249 −$249 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $591 −$590 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $10 −$7 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $464 +$143 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $827 +$177 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $748 +$61 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $1,119 −$748 -67%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $1,736 +$285 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $1,043 +$147 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $253 +$48 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 3? Apr 02 $469 +$42 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $986 +$62 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $312 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $248 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $486 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $473 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $271 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $211 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $413 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $330 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $330 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $238 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $238 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $218 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $218 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $191 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $51 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $148 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $163 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 341 history records