Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x026b…27a0 world 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%14W / 53L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$9
sports 34% −$2
other 15% +$5
politics 14% −$6
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.9% -12.2% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 34 -1.5% -10.9% 21% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 44 -1.1% -10.5% 23% 0% -9.6%
all 67 -1.1% -10.5% 21% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses14 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage336d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $115 −$1 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $99 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $90 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 -13%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $92 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $185 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $127 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $106 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $299 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $91 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $104 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $92 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $113 +$5 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $96 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $377 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $140 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 −$1 -25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $172 −$9 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $86 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $87 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $96 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $95 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $551 −$4 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $628 −$4 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $45 +$3 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $618 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $690 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $624 +$3 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $170 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $86 18m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $99 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $99 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $99 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $83 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $90 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $90 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $90 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $8 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $80 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $52 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.13 · official $11.13 (match) · 300 history records