Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x026b…8412 crypto 454 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (407 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,580 (-14%) realized −$5,529 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%189W / 653L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day407.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,631
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (407 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 674 -60.0% -63.8% 16% 14% -50.0%
≤30d 842 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 19% -38.0%
≤90d 842 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 19% -38.0%
all 842 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 19% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover407.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.6% 19% -38.0%
10% ← realistic here -58.0% 14% -43.9%
15% -62.1% 12% -49.3%
20% -65.8% 9% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$37 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$893
Realized−$5,529
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses189 / 653
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)842 / 454
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day407.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 842 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 48¢ 60¢ $96 $120 +$24 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 54¢ 40¢ $143 $104 −$39 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$11 -2348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$4 +1098%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$8 +2456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +422%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$3 +1025%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$21 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$15 -222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $36 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $33 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $33 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $13 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $28 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $892.81 · official $900.88 (match) · 3500 history records