Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:59:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x026f…4614 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+1%) realized +$245 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate75%33W / 11L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$111
sports 40% +$238
other 12% +$324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +17.3% +6.1% 75% 59% +5.3%
≤30d 44 +17.3% +6.1% 75% 59% +5.3%
≤90d 44 +17.3% +6.1% 75% 59% +5.3%
all 44 +17.3% +6.1% 75% 59% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 59% +5.3%
10% ← realistic here -4.0% 48% -4.7%
15% -13.3% 32% -13.9%
20% -21.8% 27% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$52 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,640
Realized+$245
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses33 / 11
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage2d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 69¢ $1,000 $847 −$153 (-15%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $500 $490 −$10 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 54¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $53 +$41 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $44 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $203 +$63 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $254 +$275 +108%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $1,008 +$360 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$11 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $117 +$68 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $90 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $64 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $905 +$76 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $220 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $115 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $115 +$101 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $91 +$24 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $74 +$96 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $151 −$151 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $232 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$3 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$4 +4%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $161 +$34 +21%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 28 $101 +$60 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$3 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 37¢ $103 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $44 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1,005 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $203 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $528 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $304 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,368 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $117 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $90 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $81 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $64 12h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,008 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $905 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $242 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $220 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $115 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,640.00 · official $1,778.04 · 105 history records