Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x0273…1867 sports 1266 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$949 (-1%) realized −$619 · open −$330
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%518W / 698L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$2,048est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,806
7 days−$19,132
14 days−$17,636
30 days+$3,530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$4,152
other 9% −$2,587
crypto 6% −$675
world 0% +$187
politics 0% −$47
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -49.3% -54.2% 7% 7% -64.6%
≤30d 242 +23.5% +11.7% 36% 36% -2.8%
≤90d 811 -8.7% -17.4% 31% 31% -13.6%
all 1216 +6.1% -4.0% 43% 42% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 42% -8.8%
10% -13.2% 41% -17.5%
15% -21.6% 39% -25.5%
20% -29.2% 37% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$144 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized−$619
Unrealized−$330
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses518 / 698
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2,048
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1216 / 1266
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$144
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $210 $253 +$43 (+21%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 20¢ $50 $203 +$153 (+305%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 44¢ 0¢ $495 $6 −$489 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $299 −$295 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $316 −$310 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $301 −$37 -12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $51 +$684 +1331%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $205 +$1,878 +914%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $210 +$996 +474%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $717 +$2,617 +365%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $195 +$322 +165%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $446 +$676 +152%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $96 −$93 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $195 −$190 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $62 +$134 +216%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $410 −$400 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $82 +$1,574 +1926%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 +$449 +874%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$141 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $503 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $299 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $316 4h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Repub BUY 2¢ $93 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Engla BUY 4¢ $206 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekis BUY 28¢ $184 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 18¢ $102 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Por BUY 19¢ $108 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 16h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 40¢ $264 16h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $154 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $36 16h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $301 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Engl BUY 13¢ $103 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Pana BUY 7¢ $206 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Engl BUY 19¢ $307 17h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06- BUY 2¢ $51 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Portug BUY 1¢ $103 17h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Un BUY 1¢ $103 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: En BUY 4¢ $51 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $51 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Gha BUY 4¢ $103 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $195 20h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $210 20h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $717 22h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $96 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $195 23h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY 10¢ $205 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $924.53 · official $1,268.86 · 3500 history records