Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0274…5a2e sports 22 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,155 (-53%) realized −$1,150 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-67.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -64.0% -67.5% 11% 11% -66.6%
≤30d 19 -64.0% -67.5% 11% 11% -66.6%
≤90d 19 -64.0% -67.5% 11% 11% -66.6%
all 19 -64.0% -67.5% 11% 11% -66.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.5% 11% -66.6%
10% -70.6% 11% -69.8%
15% -73.4% 11% -72.7%
20% -76.0% 11% -75.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$99 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$1,150
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 22¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Under 31¢ 30¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 40¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 +$161 +158%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$332 +325%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $102 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $102 5h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $102 17h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $102 17h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $102 29h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 29h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $102 29h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $102 40h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 34¢ $102 45h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $102 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $102 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $102 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $102 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $102 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $102 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $102 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 25¢ $102 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $102 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $102 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.48 · official $295.48 (match) · 41 history records