Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0278…bff4 weather 1082 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$132 (-1%) realized −$108 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate90%963W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$121
14 days−$120
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 23% −$16
weather 19% −$48
crypto 15% +$19
politics 10% −$11
culture 9% −$30
finance 9% −$27
world 6% −$7
tech 5% −$47
sports 3% −$12
economics 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -12.6% -21.0% 63% 40% -19.9%
≤30d 189 -2.2% -11.5% 80% 35% -11.4%
≤90d 766 -1.8% -11.2% 88% 19% -10.9%
all 1073 -0.7% -10.2% 90% 19% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 19% -10.5%
10% -18.8% 5% -19.0%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses963 / 110
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1073 / 1082
History coverage137d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1073 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? No 72¢ 74¢ $26 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 91¢ 98¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 96¢ 91¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 87¢ 82¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? No 84¢ 76¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-10%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 77¢ 8¢ $27 $3 −$24 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$6 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $14 +$4 +30%
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $23 −$7 -32%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $26 +$3 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$9 +31%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $27 +$8 +28%
Will Johnny Keefer finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $28 +$11 +42%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -2%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $28 −$1 -3%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $27 +$7 +24%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? Jun 14 $26 +$12 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$3 +9%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 13 $27 +$10 +36%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $12 +$1 +5%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 13 $26 +$9 +35%
Will Rico Hoey finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $28 +$9 +34%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $80? Jun 12 $27 +$10 +37%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$2 +7%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $25 +$19 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $28 +$12 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $27 +$7 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$11 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$3 +9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $25 +$1 +5%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $25 +$1 +5%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $31 +$6 +20%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $25 +$3 +11%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 10 $25 +$4 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$3 +10%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $26 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 72¢ $26 1h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 74¢ $26 2h
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $13 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $18 5h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL No 85¢ $12 8h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 84¢ $14 9h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 70¢ $14 11h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $27 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 18h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 96¢ $12 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 24h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $12 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $18 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $18 34h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY No 81¢ $12 36h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 2d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 100¢ $17 2d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 100¢ $17 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $28 3d
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? SELL No 83¢ $24 3d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 90¢ $27 3d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? SELL No 76¢ $27 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 98¢ $17 3d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 78¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.04 · official $133.02 (match) · 2418 history records