Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

02 0x027c…b382 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$321 (+21%) realized +$314 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown64%max

Avg bet$96per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$381

7 days+$510

14 days+$314

30 days+$314

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-7.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+9.6%	-0.9%	69%	69%	+34.2%
≤30d	15	+1.9%	-7.8%	67%	60%	+11.4%
≤90d	15	+1.9%	-7.8%	67%	60%	+11.4%
all	15	+1.9%	-7.8%	67%	60%	+11.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.8%	60%	+11.4%
10%	-16.6%	60%	+0.8%
15%	-24.7%	60%	-9.0%
20%	-32.1%	40%	-17.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -19% → late +20% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$59 vs −$56 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$186

Realized+$314

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage7d

Avg bet$96

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown64%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	65¢	68¢	$179	$186	+$7 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$182	+$91	+50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$213	+$158	+74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$51	+$24	+46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$51	+$29	+58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$90	+88%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$76	+$35	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$47	+46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$101	+$51	+51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	+$66	+65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$202	−$200	-99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$100	+$4	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$273	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$370	5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	85¢	$74	23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$80	27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	97¢	$80	27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$30	27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$71	27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	56¢	$91	37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	92¢	$191	44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$30	45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$76	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$148	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$152	5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	91¢	$50	5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	81¢	$168	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$104	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.67 · official $185.67 (match) · 34 history records