Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
02 0x027d…dd69 other 36 markets active 6h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$104 (+13%) realized +$112 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$162
14 days+$112
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$16
sports 29% +$122
crypto 4% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +29.8% +17.5% 50% 50% +32.4%
≤30d 20 +16.8% +5.7% 45% 45% +15.8%
≤90d 20 +16.8% +5.7% 45% 45% +15.8%
all 20 +16.8% +5.7% 45% 45% +15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 45% +15.8%
10% -4.4% 45% +4.7%
15% -13.6% 40% -5.4%
20% -22.1% 30% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$14 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions16
Markets (closed)20 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$16 +36%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$17 +25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$17 +49%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$50 +325%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$32 +206%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $45 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 35¢ $17 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $84 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 18h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 37h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 39h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.50 · official $408.51 (match) · 67 history records