Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
02 0x0280…da32 other 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 670d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate77%188W / 57L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$1
14 days+$86
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$387
sports 8% +$287
politics 0% −$6
economics 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +17.1% +6.0% 80% 33% -9.5%
≤30d 68 +16.1% +5.1% 76% 44% -9.1%
≤90d 114 +7.0% -3.2% 79% 30% -9.9%
all 245 +1.2% -8.4% 77% 27% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 27% -9.7%
10% -17.2% 20% -18.4%
15% -25.2% 18% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 14% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$24 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

670d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses188 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage670d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $322 +$6 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $1,094 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $277 +$57 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,099 −$93 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,103 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $691 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +222%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,107 +$4 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$4 +100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$7 +67%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$4 +47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $23 +$10 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$6 +33%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$12 +325%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1,026 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $24 +$11 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +213%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $66 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2,182 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1,086 +$2 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $945 +$7 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $11 +$25 +233%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $85 +$11 +12%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $4 +$4 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $320 +$15 +5%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $4 +$4 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $683 +$3 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$5 +104%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$8 +123%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $12 +$7 +57%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $69 +$14 +20%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $71 +$15 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $365 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $612 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $77 +$9 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $21 +$4 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $346 +$20 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $757 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $328 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $322 13h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $439 14h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 14h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 14h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 14h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $136 14h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 14h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $69 14h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 16h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 17h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $186 18h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 18h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $730 21h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $364 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $3 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $2 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $2 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $2 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $293 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $20 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $250 40h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $16 40h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $23 42h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $896 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $110 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 587 history records