Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x0280…7305 sports 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$905 (+2%) realized +$836 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%71W / 71L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$321
7 days+$321
14 days+$321
30 days+$1,288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$1,347
crypto 20% +$337
other 2% −$707
politics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -9.3% -17.9% 56% 35% -5.5%
≤30d 58 +7.2% -3.0% 59% 38% +6.3%
≤90d 58 +7.2% -3.0% 59% 38% +6.3%
all 142 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 39% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 39% -7.4%
10% -15.8% 34% -16.2%
15% -23.9% 25% -24.3%
20% -31.4% 20% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$143 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$674
Realized+$836
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses71 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage534d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 78¢ 68¢ $502 $440 −$62 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 22¢ 32¢ $165 $234 +$69 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $146 +$38 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $107 +$39 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $245 +$65 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $120 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $292 +$38 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $204 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $117 −$14 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $348 +$59 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $185 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $424 −$18 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $164 +$40 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $148 −$145 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$61 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$33 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $403 +$33 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $156 +$49 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $288 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $131 −$30 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $309 +$36 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$30 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $198 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $151 −$47 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$15 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $65 −$63 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $91 +$185 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $89 +$29 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $229 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $303 +$101 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $115 −$13 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $89 −$88 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $87 +$15 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $95 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $15 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $12 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $91 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $39 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $82 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $82 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $52 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $79 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $63 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $67 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $9 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $9 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $56 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $56 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $51 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $50 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $47 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.91 · official $673.91 (match) · 951 history records