trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | No | 21¢ | 24¢ | $7 | $8 | +$1 (+14%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? | Dec 10 | $0 | $0 | +524% |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | May 07 | $3 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? | Apr 08 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Apr 05 | $14 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Apr 01 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 29 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Mar 28 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 20? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 20 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 20 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall | Mar 19 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 19 | +27.8% | +15.6% | 68% | 5% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +15.6% | 5% | -9.4% |
| 10% | +4.6% | 5% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -5.5% | 5% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -14.8% | 5% | -33.2% |