Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0285…1471 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$212 (-12%) realized −$104 · open −$108
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$116
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$169
world 25% −$99
politics 13% +$10
culture 10% +$3
tech 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -32.8% -39.2% 50% 50% -78.4%
≤90d 14 -22.9% -30.3% 50% 43% -40.1%
all 14 -22.9% -30.3% 50% 43% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 43% -40.1%
10% -37.0% 36% -45.9%
15% -43.0% 29% -51.1%
20% -48.6% 7% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$29 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,125
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions25
Markets (closed)14 / 39
History coverage71d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 88¢ 95¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 82¢ 86¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+5%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 36¢ 25¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $50 $31 −$19 (-37%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 83¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 18¢ $31 $18 −$12 (-40%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $21 $14 −$7 (-35%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 23¢ $18 $4 −$14 (-78%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 12¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-96%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Yes 10¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 11 $116 −$116 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $10 +$2 +22%
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the R Jun 02 $20 +$10 +47%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $10 +$19 +189%
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? May 19 $10 +$3 +34%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $51 +$24 +48%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $50 +$20 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $99 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $101 4d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $11 8d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $3 9d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $3 9d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 9d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 9d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $11 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $41 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $30 18d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 24d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 45¢ $8 25d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 25d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 45¢ $1 25d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 45¢ $16 25d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 26d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 26d
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy SELL Yes 31¢ $17 29d
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 30d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? BUY No 34¢ $10 30d
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the R BUY Yes 67¢ $20 30d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 64¢ $41 33d
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $14 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 33d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $102 33d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $52 33d
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 36d
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $10 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,125.07 · official $1,125.65 (match) · 73 history records