Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0287…a0c2 sports 300 markets active 1h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$614 (-16%) realized −$613 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%184W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$13
14 days−$20
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$122
politics 20% −$492
other 5% −$4
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -7.0% -15.9% 57% 44% -15.2%
≤30d 265 -11.0% -19.5% 61% 46% -14.7%
≤90d 293 -8.9% -17.5% 62% 48% -13.5%
all 298 -9.7% -18.3% 62% 47% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 47% -24.1%
10% -26.1% 34% -31.4%
15% -33.3% 23% -38.0%
20% -39.8% 14% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$613
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses184 / 114
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)298 / 300
History coverage381d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $1 −$1 -74%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 18 $1 $0 -37%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $4 −$3 -93%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $4 −$1 -21%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $3 +$1 +25%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $8 +$1 +7%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 +$1 +42%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 $0 +5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -81%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -61%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +145%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 43m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $1 58m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 75¢ $1 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 16¢ $0 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SELL Lotte Giants 36¢ $1 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 55¢ $1 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 4¢ $0 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 4¢ $0 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $1 2h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 38¢ $1 2h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL Doosan Bears 99¢ $3 2h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 98¢ $3 2h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL KT Wiz 10¢ $0 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $4 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 84¢ $2 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 71¢ $1 3h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 75¢ $2 4h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 65¢ $1 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $6 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 87¢ $3 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 74¢ $1 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ $1 4h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 67¢ $1 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $4 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $1 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 3¢ $0 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 90¢ $1 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 82¢ $4 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.40 · official $1.40 (match) · 788 history records