Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x0289…cb50
sports · 33 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$140 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$159 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized+$159
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$159
14 days+$159
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Eintracht Spandau 22¢ 32¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+48%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 67¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Weibo Gaming Youth Team 64¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 78¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 29¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier G2 Minnesota 59¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner G2 NORD 88¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Team Heretics Academy 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 +$16 +59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$72 +142%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$9 -32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $43 −$42 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $12 −$3 -25%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$22 +97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$4 +24%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$5 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$22 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$4 +21%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$7 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$44 +216%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$31 +152%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$64 +315%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$41
other 11% +$75
crypto 4% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 22¢ $20 16m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $42 24m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 67¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $20 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $122 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $51 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $20 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $9 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $48 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 20¢ $8 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $20 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $20 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 10h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY G2 Minnesota 59¢ $43 14h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 61¢ $3 20h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Eintracht Spandau 35¢ $11 20h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 28¢ $9 20h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 100¢ $44 20h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 50¢ $22 21h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 100¢ $22 21h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 80¢ $18 22h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 100¢ $18 22h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 71¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 29¢ $20 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $20 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +20.4% +8.9% 63% 60% +13.5%
≤30d 30 +20.4% +8.9% 63% 60% +13.5%
≤90d 30 +20.4% +8.9% 63% 60% +13.5%
all 30 +20.4% +8.9% 63% 60% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 60% +13.5%
10% -1.5% 53% +2.6%
15% -11.0% 40% -7.3%
20% -19.8% 37% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.56 · official $29.56 (match) · 56 history records