Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
02 0x028f…c9cb other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 711d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,323 (+9%) realized +$1,321 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%82W / 41L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$116
14 days+$539
30 days+$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$1,431
sports 13% −$224
politics 7% +$526
crypto 7% −$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +130.7% +108.8% 80% 80% +41.9%
≤30d 11 +136.5% +114.0% 64% 64% +81.4%
≤90d 28 +76.1% +59.3% 71% 57% +22.2%
all 123 +21.6% +10.0% 67% 56% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.0% 56% -1.2%
10% -0.5% 41% -10.6%
15% -10.1% 32% -19.3%
20% -18.9% 28% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$55 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

711d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$1,321
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses82 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 128
History coverage711d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots Yes 86¢ 89¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $63 −$62 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $23 +$21 +90%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $31 +$94 +306%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 +$38 +325%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $76 +$24 +32%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 +$459 +1116%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $85 +$15 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $76 +$11 +14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Santiago Gimenez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A se May 25 $473 +$10 +2%
Will Hugo Ekitike be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premie May 24 $96 +$1 +2%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 23 $61 +$39 +65%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 23 $186 −$10 -5%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 11 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? May 07 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $35 +$65 +188%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 30 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $85 +$15 +18%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $64 +$36 +56%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 31 $28 +$72 +257%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 31 $146 +$9 +6%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Mar 19 $15 +$85 +567%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 14 $13 +$17 +138%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A se Mar 10 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $68 −$68 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $40 −$31 -78%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $68 +$32 +47%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 21 $45 +$55 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-0 BUY 21¢ $20 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots BUY Yes 86¢ $47 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerl BUY 6¢ $10 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $63 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 53¢ $44 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $4 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $19 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 44¢ $31 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 12¢ $21 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 24¢ $31 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $76 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $36 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $41 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $76 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 28d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $20 28d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 32d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $110 35d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 38d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 72¢ $72 40d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $49 50d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $78 51d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 51d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 51d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 58d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $23 63d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 63d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.95 · official $68.48 · 348 history records