Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x0293…f15b sports 1406 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$288 (-1%) realized −$286 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%849W / 548L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$342est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$455
7 days+$482
14 days+$537
30 days+$729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$989
other 12% −$931
weather 3% −$86
crypto 1% +$17
culture 1% +$266
world 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +10.3% -0.2% 79% 45% -2.5%
≤30d 244 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 44% -5.0%
≤90d 1090 -4.0% -13.1% 62% 44% -9.0%
all 1397 -4.9% -13.9% 61% 45% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 45% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 31% -17.7%
15% -29.7% 20% -25.6%
20% -36.6% 13% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$286
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses849 / 548
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$342
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1397 / 1406
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $400 $397 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? No 89¢ 94¢ $89 $95 +$6 (+6%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Over 80¢ 46¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-42%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $28 −$3 -11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Wil Jun 22 $6 −$5 -72%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $454 +$124 +27%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $43 +$53 +123%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $3 +$1 +29%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $70 +$21 +30%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1 Jun 21 $56 +$186 +334%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $18 +$1 +6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$10 +51%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $107 +$21 +20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $377 +$15 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $2 $0 +14%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $109 +$12 +11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 20 $62 −$2 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 +$15 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $78 −$7 -9%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $501 +$48 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $510 +$31 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 +$10 +21%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 +$4 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 +$13 +26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$30 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $381 +$28 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $11 +$1 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 +$8 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $500 +$30 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $499 +$136 +27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $525 +$44 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $502 +$23 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $287 −$287 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $102 −$86 -84%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $121 +$10 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$7 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 +$11 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $85 +$16 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $294 +$153 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $303 −$9 -3%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $7 +$4 +60%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 70¢ $13 51m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 70¢ $12 51m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 58m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Wil SELL $2 58m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $400 58m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 89¢ $90 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 81¢ $12 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $4 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY 12¢ $6 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $28 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $454 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $95 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 77¢ $3 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $43 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $12 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $79 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $70 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY 69¢ $158 13h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND Argentin BUY $69 13h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $35 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $1 27h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $17 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $2 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $107 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.08 · official $504.08 (match) · 3500 history records