Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0293…7c21 crypto 38 markets active 22h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-6%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$17
other 3% −$4
sports 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -42.3% -47.8% 33% 33% -45.3%
≤30d 16 -55.0% -59.3% 25% 25% -77.7%
≤90d 16 -55.0% -59.3% 25% 25% -77.7%
all 37 -7.3% -16.1% 49% 43% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 43% -16.1%
10% -24.2% 38% -24.1%
15% -31.5% 32% -31.5%
20% -38.2% 27% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage136d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$12 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 19 $9 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 18 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 18 $19 −$8 -43%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 18 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 17 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 15 $13 −$6 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 15 $7 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 15 $7 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - February 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 13 $14 +$29 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 08 $17 +$49 +297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 08 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 08 $10 +$6 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 35h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 126d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 126d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 126d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $11 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 126d
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 126d
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 126d
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $13 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 126d
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 128d
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 128d
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $10 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.58 (match) · 88 history records