Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

02 0x0294…d1f3 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$13 (+8%) realized +$15 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-26.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-19.2%	-26.9%	60%	40%	+2.2%
≤30d	5	-19.2%	-26.9%	60%	40%	+2.2%
≤90d	5	-19.2%	-26.9%	60%	40%	+2.2%
all	5	-19.2%	-26.9%	60%	40%	+2.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.9%	40%	+2.2%
10%	-33.9%	40%	-7.6%
15%	-40.3%	20%	-16.5%
20%	-46.2%	20%	-24.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.24 per $1 lost it wins $3.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$53

Realized+$15

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$51	$51	−$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Yes	36¢	20¢	$4	$2	−$2 (-43%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$50	+$1	+3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$41	+$12	+31%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$8	+$6	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 22	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$51	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	95¢	$51	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$50	3h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	36¢	$4	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	99¢	$53	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	83¢	$24	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$15	16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	58¢	$8	22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$3	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$1	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$5	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.86 · official $52.86 (match) · 13 history records