Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:11:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x0294…a02e crypto 184 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$37 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%164W / 18L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$48
sports 0% −$27
other 0% +$2
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 106 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 182 -3.1% -12.3% 90% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -9.5%
10% -20.7% 5% -18.1%
15% -28.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$551) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses164 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)182 / 184
History coverage299d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 22? No 100¢ 98¢ $580 $571 −$9 (-2%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 20? Jun 20 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? Jun 19 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $578 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 17? Jun 18 $424 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $577 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $576 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $575 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $574 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $574 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $572 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $570 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 06 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $569 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $568 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $433 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $568 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 2? Jun 02 $566 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 1? Jun 02 $565 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? Jun 01 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? Jun 01 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? May 30 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 29? May 29 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? May 26 $562 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 24? May 24 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 23? May 23 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 21? May 22 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 18? May 18 $557 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 18 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on May 17? May 17 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 16? May 16 $556 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 14? May 15 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14? May 14 $554 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 13? May 14 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 13? May 13 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 12? May 12 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11? May 11 $401 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 10? May 11 $549 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 10? May 10 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 9? May 09 $548 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $580 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $579 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $579 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $425 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $153 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $424 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $577 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $576 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $576 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $575 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $574 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $574 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $573 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $572 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $572 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $571 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $571 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $570 15d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $570 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $569 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $568 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $433 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $568 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $567 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $566 19d
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $565 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $564 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $564 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $563 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $563 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.87 · official $580.87 (match) · 446 history records