Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x0298…5cdc
other · 17 markets active 3d ago
4.5score
+$7,965 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,513 · open −$1,398
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$807
Realized+$9,513
Unrealized−$1,398
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,742
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 2 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4,891
14 days+$5,081
30 days+$6,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 61¢ 32¢ $1,202 $639 −$563 (-47%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 4¢ $1,003 $168 −$835 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,599 +$3,806 +238%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3,559 +$1,086 +30%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 05 $294 +$99 +34%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $740 +$90 +12%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $3,278 +$1,557 +48%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $2,242 −$56 -2%
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? Apr 16 $684 +$435 +64%
Claude 4.7 released by June 30? Apr 16 $1,595 +$669 +42%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $3,062 −$2,060 -67%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 03 $2,189 +$750 +34%
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? Mar 02 $171 +$8 +5%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $2,917 +$986 +34%
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? Feb 20 $2,041 +$893 +44%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 17 $2,165 +$853 +39%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 11 $200 +$398 +199%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% +$7,636
tech 39% +$479
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,033 2d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,220 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $5,404 2d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $4,645 2d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,403 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $93 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $455 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $378 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,023 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $369 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $168 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $174 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $108 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $60 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $267 4d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $309 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $372 6d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $253 6d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $167 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $158 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $393 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $299 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $654 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $34 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $173 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +134.3% +112.0% 100% 100% +76.3%
≤30d 5 +72.4% +56.0% 100% 100% +53.9%
≤90d 9 +44.2% +30.4% 78% 78% +20.3%
all 15 +50.2% +35.9% 87% 80% +22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.9% 80% +22.7%
10% +22.9% 73% +10.9%
15% +11.0% 47% +0.2%
20% +0.1% 20% -9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $806.62 · official $806.62 (match) · 221 history records