Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
02 0x029c…7329 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,309 (+27%) realized +$1,979 · open +$330
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,070now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$289
7 days+$2,167
14 days+$2,237
30 days+$2,237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$2,703
other 7% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +30.6% +18.2% 71% 71% +23.0%
≤30d 21 +15.2% +4.3% 62% 62% +16.3%
≤90d 21 +15.2% +4.3% 62% 62% +16.3%
all 21 +15.2% +4.3% 62% 62% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 62% +16.3%
10% -5.7% 62% +5.2%
15% -14.8% 57% -5.0%
20% -23.2% 52% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$223 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,070
Realized+$1,979
Unrealized+$330
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage10d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 76¢ $470 $696 +$226 (+48%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 61¢ 84¢ $270 $374 +$104 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $152 +$102 +67%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $304 +$251 +83%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $71 +$95 +134%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $296 +$289 +98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $304 −$300 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$91 +90%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $405 +$278 +69%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $305 +$347 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 +$196 +65%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 16 $756 +$617 +82%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,519 +$708 +28%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $707 −$700 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$166 +109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $103 −$102 -99%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $606 +$846 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $122 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $121 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $355 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $152 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $152 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $152 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $304 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $71 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $203 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $93 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $304 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $101 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $405 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $305 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $305 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $62 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $1,372 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 96¢ $3,227 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 74¢ $504 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 74¢ $2,015 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $756 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $707 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $319 8d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 8d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 8d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $72 8d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $72 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,069.80 · official $1,088.23 · 46 history records