Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x029d…5673 other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+3%) realized +$67 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%34W / 105L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$321
7 days+$367
14 days+$367
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$180
sports 21% +$106
world 6% +$46
crypto 3% −$11
politics 1% −$1
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -86.5% -87.8% 8% 8% +30.3%
≤30d 50 -84.7% -86.1% 10% 8% +29.9%
≤90d 51 -82.0% -83.7% 12% 10% +29.9%
all 139 -46.5% -51.6% 24% 20% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 20% +16.9%
10% -56.3% 14% +5.7%
15% -60.5% 12% -4.5%
20% -64.4% 10% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×13.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.47 per $1 lost it wins $4.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses34 / 105
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 104
History coverage226d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 83¢ 82¢ $350 $348 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $523 +$111 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $117 +$94 +80%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 AND Jun 28 $121 +$117 +97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 Jun 23 $70 +$46 +65%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY 5¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 83¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 83¢ $201 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 83¢ $101 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 82¢ $523 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 81¢ $524 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $84 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $451 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL 99¢ $211 25h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 AND SELL 99¢ $238 25h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-4.5) AND Spread: Croatia BUY 57¢ $200 3d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 AND BUY 49¢ $121 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY 54¢ $117 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 6¢ $15 3d
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will S BUY 17¢ $75 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 2¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY 1¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY 23¢ $26 3d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croati BUY 2¢ $10 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 25¢ $20 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 25¢ $41 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 SELL 99¢ $116 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 BUY 59¢ $70 7d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL paiN 90¢ $9 21d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 87¢ $4 21d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 87¢ $1 21d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 87¢ $4 21d
Sharks vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 65¢ $1 92d
Flyers vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 56¢ $3 92d
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-28? BUY No 57¢ $3 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.89 · official $352.75 · 274 history records