Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x029d…1d43
crypto · 15 markets active 2d ago
3.0score
−$681 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$68 · open −$748
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$611
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$748
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage90d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 3 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,219 $574 −$645 (-53%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 1¢ $114 $28 −$86 (-75%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $26 $9 −$17 (-66%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 23 $108 +$17 +16%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 02 $86 +$24 +28%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $62 +$24 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 15 $0 $0 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 81% −$748
other 11% +$42
world 7% +$27
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $111 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $315 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $6 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $559 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $24 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $59 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 3¢ $52 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $40 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 3¢ $25 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $105 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $22 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 3¢ $42 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $21 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $42 19d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $126 19d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $103 28d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $5 28d
Kash Patel out by April 30? BUY No 78¢ $86 67d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $86 69d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 72¢ $62 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +16.0% +4.9% 100% 100% +4.9%
≤90d 12 -11.6% -20.1% 58% 50% +9.3%
all 12 -11.6% -20.1% 58% 50% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 50% +9.3%
10% -27.7% 42% -1.1%
15% -34.7% 25% -10.7%
20% -41.1% 8% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.87 · official $610.87 (match) · 44 history records