Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x02a1…e513 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 43% −$2
crypto 6% $0
politics 6% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 17 -16.5% -24.4% 35% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 0% -10.2%
10% -31.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -38.3% 0% -26.7%
20% -44.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage449d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $11 $0 +3%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%? Jun 05 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $36 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $36 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 38h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $25 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $7 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $32 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $16 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 17d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $0 185d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 332d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 SELL No 98¢ $12 357d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 357d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 BUY No 95¢ $11 378d
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $12 378d
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $12 378d
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 378d
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 378d
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 378d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records