Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
02 0x02a1…dd72 world 204 markets active 4d ago coverage 308d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 308d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$56,829 (+13%) realized +$55,166 · open +$1,663
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%107W / 64L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$2,142per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$109,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13,108
14 days+$13,108
30 days+$10,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$34,633
other 20% +$8,702
politics 12% +$5,178
economics 1% +$198
crypto 1% +$1,271
culture 0% +$820
sports 0% −$388
tech 0% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +124.7% +103.3% 75% 75% +70.6%
≤30d 10 +23.1% +11.4% 50% 40% +17.6%
≤90d 30 +93.8% +75.3% 53% 43% +13.5%
all 171 +36.4% +23.4% 63% 46% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.4% 46% +10.6%
10% ← realistic here +11.6% 39% +0.1%
15% +0.8% 33% -9.6%
20% -9.1% 29% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,352) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$689 vs −$392 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$109,062
Realized+$55,166
Unrealized+$1,663
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses107 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions47
Markets (closed)171 / 204
History coverage308d ⚠
Avg bet$2,142
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 92¢ $17,638 $32,150 +$14,511 (+82%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 82¢ 94¢ $20,442 $23,548 +$3,107 (+15%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 87¢ 98¢ $8,730 $9,805 +$1,075 (+12%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 64¢ 81¢ $7,266 $9,189 +$1,923 (+26%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $6,377 $7,053 +$676 (+11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 70¢ 100¢ $4,900 $6,982 +$2,082 (+42%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5,810 $5,750 −$60 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $2,560 $3,982 +$1,422 (+56%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $10,000 $1,700 −$8,300 (-83%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 90¢ 96¢ $1,350 $1,438 +$88 (+6%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 49¢ 53¢ $1,292 $1,389 +$96 (+7%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $1,665 $1,050 −$615 (-37%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 36¢ 68¢ $564 $1,046 +$482 (+85%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 50¢ 96¢ $491 $953 +$462 (+94%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 99¢ $304 $790 +$486 (+160%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 62¢ 72¢ $636 $739 +$103 (+16%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $780 $710 −$70 (-9%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 10¢ 42¢ $63 $277 +$214 (+340%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? No 11¢ 100¢ $22 $200 +$178 (+808%)
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $59 $74 +$15 (+25%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $26 $62 +$36 (+140%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $1,069 $37 −$1,032 (-97%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $376 $26 −$350 (-93%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-28%)
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $16 −$13 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 18 $3,657 −$673 -18%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $1,335 +$3,055 +229%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1,835 +$3,665 +200%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $7,980 +$7,061 +88%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $280 −$280 -100%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $13,760 +$520 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 25 $837 −$837 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $3,721 −$1,624 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $1,770 +$270 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $84 −$84 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 12 $2,240 −$2,240 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $7,880 +$72 +1%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 09 $1,703 +$6,461 +379%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $70,900 −$3,030 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 07 $230 −$160 -70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 06 $112 −$112 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 01 $778 +$318 +41%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 25 $1,360 +$640 +47%
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? Apr 25 $1,414 +$1,049 +74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $260 +$240 +92%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $94 +$279 +295%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 21 $647 −$27 -4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $937 −$908 -97%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $150 +$46 +31%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $3,812 +$188 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $910 +$2,490 +274%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Apr 01 $320 +$162 +51%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $890 −$20 -2%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 22 $230 +$770 +335%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $115 −$115 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 20 $390 +$45 +12%
Khamenei seen in public by February 28? Mar 20 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 20 $364 −$149 -41%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28? Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31? Mar 06 $613 +$2,458 +401%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $5,802 +$198 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $2,518 −$2,510 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $171 +$129 +75%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31? Feb 25 $528 +$384 +73%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? Feb 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025? Feb 20 $10,889 +$196 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 18 $315 +$10 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $4 +$4 +108%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $208 −$103 -50%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? Feb 06 $580 +$1,214 +209%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31? Feb 06 $960 +$1,040 +108%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026? Feb 03 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31? Feb 01 $108 −$108 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 89¢ $890 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,859 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 60¢ $480 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 42¢ $132 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 42¢ $79 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $19 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $15 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $150 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $102 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $600 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $13 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $459 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $127 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $20 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $13 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $15 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $214 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $195 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $145 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $320 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109,061.51 · official $109,047.42 (match) · 3500 history records