Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02a4…ef95 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$72 (-3%) realized −$71 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$68
politics 34% −$2
crypto 21% $0
world 3% −$2
other 3% $0
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 4 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 25% +30.6%
all 20 -5.9% -14.8% 25% 15% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 15% -11.9%
10% -23.0% 10% -20.3%
15% -30.4% 10% -28.0%
20% -37.2% 10% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$22 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage129d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $76 $0 -0%
Penguins vs. Blues Apr 15 $230 +$181 +79%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $24 +$2 +8%
Miami Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Mar 22 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $295 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Mar 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 09 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $8 +$6 +74%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $294 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $296 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $296 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 18 $298 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $295 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $83 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $83 33d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $76 50d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $76 55d
Penguins vs. Blues BUY Blues 56¢ $230 71d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $26 84d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $24 86d
Miami Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac BUY Tomas Machac 61¢ $256 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $295 98d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $295 100d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL No $1 101d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $8 101d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $10 103d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No $2 103d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 106d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $13 106d
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes $2 106d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $3 106d
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes $2 108d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $8 108d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 108d
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes $2 108d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $4 108d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $294 111d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $6 111d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $7 112d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $294 112d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $296 115d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $296 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.47 · official $38.47 (match) · 76 history records