Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
02 0x02a6…3463 crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,187 (+8%) realized +$1,187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%51W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days−$1,374
14 days+$448
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$152
other 32% +$101
crypto 14% +$53
world 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -57.1% -61.2% 19% 19% -47.2%
≤30d 53 +20.0% +8.5% 28% 28% -15.6%
≤90d 76 +9.2% -1.2% 28% 28% -12.9%
all 146 +10.7% +0.1% 35% 35% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 35% -12.9%
10% -9.4% 34% -21.2%
15% -18.2% 33% -28.8%
20% -26.2% 32% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$92 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses51 / 95
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage120d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (94 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $102 +$243 +238%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $116 −$113 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $496 +$393 +79%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $405 +$284 +70%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 −$98 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $199 −$196 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $97 −$94 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $93 −$91 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $306 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $256 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $256 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $148 +$118 +80%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $205 +$144 +70%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $307 +$72 +23%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $112 +$615 +550%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $97 −$95 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $190 −$185 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $68 −$67 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $168 −$164 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $62 +$1,563 +2532%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$403 +785%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $55 −$54 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $125 −$8 -6%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $57 −$56 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $62 −$4 -7%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$136 +133%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $91 −$90 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $192 −$188 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $99 +$105 +106%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $193 −$189 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $199 −$194 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $191 −$187 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $113 −$110 -97%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $100 +$96 +96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $201 +$137 +68%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $101 +$132 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 29¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $116 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $406 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $889 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $496 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $689 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 15¢ $44 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $101 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $199 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $97 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 20¢ $93 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $256 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $256 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 6d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 13¢ $266 7d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 25¢ $349 7d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 22¢ $379 7d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 7d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 7d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $148 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $97 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $112 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $190 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 8d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records