Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02a6…0f67 world 73 markets active 7d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,630 (+16%) realized +$1,657 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%8W / 64L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$1,753
sports 3% +$435
other 1% −$57
economics 0% −$50
politics 0% −$15
finance 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 29 -75.1% -77.5% 7% 7% +11.3%
all 72 -40.1% -45.8% 11% 11% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.8% 11% +13.6%
10% -51.0% 8% +2.7%
15% -55.7% 8% -7.2%
20% -60.1% 8% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$794 vs −$67 · ×11.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1,657
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses8 / 64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage110d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Apr 18 $50 −$17 -34%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $200 +$296 +148%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 29 $325 +$435 +134%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 23 $500 −$223 -45%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $30 −$26 -87%
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Mar 21 $20 −$7 -34%
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 50% by March 31? Mar 20 $2 −$1 -72%
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? Mar 20 $15 −$13 -88%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 14 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Mar 14 $325 +$58 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $2 +$20 +1011%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 10 $367 −$327 -89%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 09 $3,767 −$2,406 -64%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Mar 07 $41 −$41 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Mar 07 $45 −$45 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Mar 07 $64 −$64 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Mar 07 $110 −$110 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 07 $76 −$76 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 07 $21 −$21 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 07 $23 −$23 -100%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Mar 06 $21 +$4 +18%
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 7, 2026? Mar 06 $3 −$1 -50%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 06 $150 −$61 -41%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $647 −$274 -42%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Mar 01 $320 −$196 -61%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $10 6d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $15 6d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $99 70d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $132 77d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $133 80d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $205 80d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $397 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 88¢ $119 82d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $192 82d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $363 85d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $277 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 90¢ $244 87d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 87d
Anthropic acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 87d
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 50% by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 88d
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 88d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $200 92d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $200 92d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 93d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 94d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL Yes 74¢ $201 94d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $250 95d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 98d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $200 98d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $40 99d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $300 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.75 · official $2.75 (match) · 254 history records