Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02a7…75e2 sports 337 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,527 (-2%) realized −$7,528 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%310W / 26L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,109per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days−$7,506
14 days−$6,915
30 days−$6,044
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$4,303
tech 12% +$93
crypto 8% −$39
other 6% +$1,496
weather 2% −$2,088
world 1% −$2,244
politics 0% −$541
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -2.4% -11.7% 95% 11% -25.8%
≤30d 180 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 3% -11.8%
≤90d 201 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 4% -11.7%
all 336 -3.7% -12.9% 92% 5% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 5% -11.4%
10% -21.2% 4% -19.9%
15% -28.8% 3% -27.6%
20% -35.8% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$670 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$1,014
Realized−$7,528
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses310 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions1
Markets (closed)336 / 337
History coverage604d
Avg bet$1,109
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Walczaki 100¢ 100¢ $1,013 $1,014 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $302 +$98 +32%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $3,574 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,000 +$3 +0%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,000 +$3 +0%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $105 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $4,585 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $302 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,500 +$15 +1%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,617 +$16 +1%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,035 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $2,974 +$56 +2%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $114 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs STATE - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,024 +$811 +27%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $803 +$7 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3,000 +$30 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $503 +$71 +14%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,492 +$90 +6%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $895 +$17 +2%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $207 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $571 +$8 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $607 −$606 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8,177 −$8,177 -100%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $778 +$8 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6,000 +$61 +1%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $2,166 +$22 +1%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $254 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $47 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $249 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $129 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $626 +$32 +5%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5,951 +$59 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $759 +$9 +1%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $7,464 +$73 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 100¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 100¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 100¢ $944 1h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 100¢ $3,106 15h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 100¢ $8 15h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 100¢ $128 16h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 100¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 100¢ $108 16h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 100¢ $78 16h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 100¢ $85 16h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 100¢ $15 16h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 100¢ $45 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $302 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1,401 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 100¢ $99 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1,500 20h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $320 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $1,271 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $121 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $23 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $85 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $1,180 23h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 100¢ $79 26h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 100¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 100¢ $5 27h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 100¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 100¢ $25 45h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 99¢ $80 46h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 100¢ $20 47h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 100¢ $1,565 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,013.90 · official $1,013.90 (match) · 1421 history records