Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02aa…4413 other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 702d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$491 (-3%) realized −$482 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%59W / 52L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$30
14 days−$67
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$511
crypto 16% +$67
sports 13% −$20
politics 2% −$1
world 1% −$100
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +8.5% -1.8% 61% 61% -8.6%
≤30d 48 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 48% -12.3%
≤90d 54 +0.4% -9.1% 54% 44% -9.6%
all 111 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 41% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 41% -13.3%
10% -22.9% 35% -21.6%
15% -30.3% 28% -29.2%
20% -37.2% 21% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$49 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

702d coverage
Net worth$1,341
Realized−$482
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses59 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions16
Markets (closed)111 / 127
History coverage702d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+47%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 60¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 2¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 20 $51 +$55 +108%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $18 −$8 -42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$107 +419%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$193 +189%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $115 −$6 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $116 −$20 -17%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $115 −$4 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $112 +$2 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $183 −$18 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $180 −$15 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $208 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 15 $911 +$9 +1%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $50 −$26 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $252 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 8h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 89¢ $106 32h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 32h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 32h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 32h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 33h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 33h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 33h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $101 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,341.17 · official $1,342.11 (match) · 239 history records