Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02aa…c9f3 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.9% -10.3% 70% 25% -11.2%
≤30d 20 -0.9% -10.3% 70% 25% -11.2%
≤90d 20 -0.9% -10.3% 70% 25% -11.2%
all 20 -0.9% -10.3% 70% 25% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 25% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 10% -19.7%
15% -26.7% 5% -27.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $56 −$17 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $153 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $57 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records