Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02af…f6c5 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$14
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$21
crypto 19% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -17.9% -25.7% 47% 47% -4.5%
≤30d 21 -20.1% -27.7% 48% 48% -4.5%
≤90d 21 -20.1% -27.7% 48% 48% -4.5%
all 21 -20.1% -27.7% 48% 48% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 48% -4.5%
10% -34.6% 43% -13.6%
15% -40.9% 33% -22.0%
20% -46.7% 24% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) Virtus.pro 61¢ 61¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $61 +$49 +80%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 +$34 +165%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 +$1 +36%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $2 +$1 +42%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $83 −$61 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $12 +$11 +87%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$5 +27%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL REKONIX 33¢ $110 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 14¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 19¢ $19 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 22¢ $21 2h
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 61¢ $30 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $54 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 37¢ $20 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 73¢ $2 24h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 45¢ $2 25h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 8¢ $8 28h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 50¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 60¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 70¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 33¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 38¢ $42 5d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 45¢ $20 5d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 90¢ $58 5d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 28¢ $10 5d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 34¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.00 · official $24.59 · 45 history records