Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

02 0x02af…aaa9 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$37,212 (+17%) realized +$37,212 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Whale WR67%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9,784per market

Trades / day131.7pace

Fees−$2,209est.

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-24.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-16.7%	-24.7%	45%	45%	+5.3%
≤30d	22	-16.7%	-24.7%	45%	45%	+5.3%
≤90d	22	-16.7%	-24.7%	45%	45%	+5.3%
all	22	-16.7%	-24.7%	45%	45%	+5.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover131.7 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-24.7%	45%	+5.3%
10%	-31.9%	41%	-4.8%
15% ← realistic here	-38.4%	32%	-14.0%
20%	-44.5%	32%	-22.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 67% (≥$20,421) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -41% → late +8% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$11,177 vs −$6,394 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.46 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$37,212

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)67%

Est. fees paid−$2,209

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage2d

Avg bet$9,784

Trades / day131.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	Jun 17	$283	+$217	+77%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$1,779	−$1,754	-99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$210	−$210	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$45,604	+$47,944	+105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1,358	+$2,142	+158%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$5,252	−$5,170	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$320	+$389	+121%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$764	+$135	+18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$21,058	−$18,558	-88%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$12,715	−$12,549	-99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$153	+$147	+96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1,510	−$1,493	-99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$2,441	−$2,145	-88%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$265	−$261	-98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 16	$294	−$290	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$32,143	+$33,794	+105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$8,890	+$2,094	+24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$224	−$221	-99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$33,107	−$32,636	-99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$24,991	+$19,054	+76%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 15	$1,471	−$1,445	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$20,421	+$5,849	+29%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	50¢	$255	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	50¢	$254	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	47¢	$153	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	45¢	$81	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	42¢	$2	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	42¢	$212	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	41¢	$210	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	41¢	$207	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	41¢	$203	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	40¢	$203	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	56¢	$283	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$11	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$198	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$0	2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	41¢	$209	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$199	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$199	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$199	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$199	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	37¢	$73	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	37¢	$114	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	33¢	$168	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	47¢	$1,750	5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	47¢	$3,501	5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	48¢	$3,651	6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	48¢	$5,993	6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	48¢	$5,993	6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	48¢	$5,993	6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	48¢	$5,993	6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	48¢	$5,993	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 294 history records